Forecast discussion: Despite being protected by high pressure, moisture along a warm front will begin to turn the skies gray before we wake up Wednesday morning. Some showers will arrive in the later part of the morning, with light to moderate rain expected in the afternoon. However, a new low pressure system will form along the frontal boundary in the Ohio River Valley, and will move south of Rhode Island Thursday night. Colder air will also filter in behind the front. For areas northwest of Boston, especially in the Berkshires, the precipitation may end as a mix of rain and snow showers, or changeover completely to snow. However, with the warm ground, we will not see any accumulations. High pressure will clear us out on Friday, with sunny skies. The big problem right now is the forecast for Saturday and Sunday. The computer models continue to disagree on a possible low pressure system forming along the coast of North Carolina. The Canadian model does not even form a low. The U.S. model develops the low, but keeps the low far enough away from us that we will see partly to mostly sunny conditions. But, the European and the United Kingdom models do show a significant low, with moderate to heavy rain expected. At this time, I am still undecided on the weekend forecast, due to all of the different scenarios. For now, I will call for showers/rain Saturday night, with a mix of rain and snow showers north and west of Boston Sunday morning. High pressure builds over the east coast, and gives us nice weather for our ghosts and goblins to go trick or treating Monday night.
72 hour forecast:
Tonight: Increasing clouds after midnight, with a low of 43.
Wednesday: Scattered showers starting in the late morning, with light/moderate rain in the afternoon, and a high of 53. Winds will come from the southwest at 6-10 mph.
Wednesday night: Light/moderate rain tapering to drizzle, and a low of 43. Winds will come from the northwest at 6-9 mph.
Thursday: Showers return in the morning, becoming moderate/heavy rain in the afternoon, and a high of 46.
Thursday night: Light/moderate rain along the coast and south of Providence; mix of rain/snow showers north and west of Providence. The mercury will fall to 34.
Friday: Any rain and mix of rain/snow showers end by mid-morning, becoming sunny, with a high of 47.
Friday night: Clear skies, with a low of 33.
Saturday: Possible ocean storm which would bring heavy rain in the afternoon, with a possible rain/snow mix or changeover to snow in the evening in areas of higher elevations. Highs 46-49, lows 35-38.
Sunday: Rain and snow showers end in the morning, becoming mostly sunny. Highs 50-53, lows 38-41.
Monday: Mostly sunny. Highs 51-54, lows 39-42.
Tuesday: Mostly sunny. Highs 53-56, lows 39-42.