What to do about Tropical Depression 13 in the Gulf of Mexico?
The computer models have come into line with the idea that the depression will acquire a name (Lee) and may actually achieve Category 1 hurricane status before coming ashore on Saturday morning. However, the outlooks get extremely dicey after that point in time. Some schemes wobble the storm westward into Beaumont TX, others take the circulation back over the Gulf of Mexico before returning to a Louisiana landfall late Sunday. With a very slow net northeastward motion and only incremental weakening, “Lee” could sock the Deep South and portions of Appalachia with as much as 24 inches of rain.
Since there is a good deal of uncertainty about the eventual fate of this system, I will keep this discussion centered on effects in Texas. On the idea that there IS a westward jog or wobble Friday night and Saturday, I am introducing rain and thunder potential to the local forecast. The most serious rainfall threats would appear to lie to the east of Interstate 45, IF we believe the center of this relatively small system moves over the “Golden Triangle” for a brief spell.
Cooler, drier air should take over starting on Labor Day, and most of the computer models show below normal temperatures and low humidity for most of next week. That’s right; 100 degree weather finally will leave the Bayou City after showing up an incredible 30 of 31 days in August.
But we are still going to need some rain.
Friday: Mostly to partly sunny; hot and humid. Highs 93 Wimberley to 97 El Campo
Friday Night: Variable cloudiness, breezy, warm and humid. Showers or thunderstorms are possible late, mostly to the east of Interstate 45. Lows 76 Winnie to 80 Hungerford
Saturday: Variable cloudiness, breezy, warm, and humid. Scattered showers are possible mainly east of Interstate 45. Highs 91 Anahuac to 95 Eagle Lake
Saturday Night: Mostly cloudy, breezy, humid with more widespread rain and thunderstorm possible. Lows 74 Baytown to 78 Kendleton
Sunday: Mostly cloudy, windy with periods of rain and thunderstorms. Rain east of Interstate 45 could be heavy. Highs 86 Liberty to 90 Rosenberg
Sunday Night: Mostly cloudy, breezy, humid with showers persisting east of Interstate 45. Lows 73 Dayton to 77 Needville
Monday, Labor Day: Mostly cloudy, breezy, cooler. Highs 84 McNair to 88 Richmond
Tuesday: Mostly sunny, breezy, less humid. High 86, Low 68
Wednesday: Sunny, breezy, warm and not humid. High 88, Low 67
Thursday: Sunny, breezy, warm, and not humid. High 85, Low 66