When it comes to NFL betting in Las Vegas there is nothing more important than the movement of the spread. Did you know that the majority of NFL games end with very similar margins of victory? The three most common are 3, 7, and 10 points. Those spreads become the primary key numbers when researching the NFL lines at the Las Vegas Sportsbooks.
When an NFL spread moves from 3 points to 3.5 or 2.5 take notice. 17% of NFL games land on the 3 point margin. Taking a game at +/- 3 points isn’t a huge risk but taking the hook or the .5 is. Getting +3.5 points on an underdog might be excellent value. 10% of all games land on 7 points while 6% of all games land on 10 points.
Overall Record: (180-45-1)
Last Week: (1-1-1)
1. Buffalo Bills at Cincinnati Bengals (+3)
We have picked the Buffalo Bills each week and continue to win. Sometimes you have to continue to ride the streak until it comes in a loser. Odds are this week is not the week for the Buffalo Bills. As the Bills continue to gain more confidence and swagger after a comeback victory against the New England Patriots it is the Cincinnati Bengals that continue to lose confidence. While their defense ranks in the top 10 the Bengals have not faced an offensive onslaught like the Bills. Cincinnati fell to 1-2 following a close home loss to the San Francisco 49ers in week three. The Bengals have done a few things right, particularly on the defensive side of the ball, but their offensive struggles have held them back. Pick Bills (-3)
2. New Orleans Saints at Jacksonville Jaguars (+7)
After a shoot-out against the Houston Texans the New Orleans Saints continue their assault on the AFC South as they embark on a season-high three game road trip. The Saints have scored at least 30 points in each of their first three games and are now going up against a Jacksonville Jaguars team that has yet to score more than 16 points this season. Drew Brees is once again having an unbelievable year throwing for 1059 yards and nine touchdowns in his first three games. That ranks second only to Tom Brady who is on record pace. The Saints have struggled defending the pass but going up against rookie Blaine Gabbert and the league’s worst passing attack shouldn’t phase them. Pick Saints (-7)
3. Atlanta Falcons at Seattle Seahawks (-4.5)
There is no doubt that something isn’t right with the Atlanta Falcons. A heavy Superbowl favorite these Falcons have struggled out of the gate only beating a Vick-less Eagles team. There are four NFC playoff teams from last season with a losing record three weeks into the season — the Bears, Falcons, Eagles and Seahawks are all 1-2. The Falcons will be able to change that against the Seahawks this Sunday. The last time the Falcons traveled to Seattle the game was tied at 10-10 when the Falcons raveled off 24 unanswered points. The Seahawks and Tavaris Jackson lead a horrible offense ranked 2nd worst in total yards against the team with the most potential to put up amazing numbers. The Falcons struggles can be attributed to their offensive line play. Matt Ryan has already been sacked 13 times this season when he was only sacked 23 times the entire 2010. The lack of pass rush is a perfect chance for the Falcons to rise up and come back to .500. Pick Falcons (-4.5)