Week 7 of the 2011 NFL season brings us the return of Tim Tebow to Miami as the Denver Broncos travel to the Miami Dolphins. It also reminds us of Super Bowl XLIV as the Indianapolis Colts visit the New Orleans Saints without Peyton Manning. The most intriguing match up is the New York Jets traveling to the San Diego Chargers as the Jets need to notch a win in order to keep pace with the Buffalo Bills and New England Patriots.
As a bettor in the NFL you are always searching for as much information as possible about any given team. This week there are also quite a few spreads that are close to the 2-3 range. Some of those spreads have the hook, or a half-point and others don’t. When it comes to NFL betting there is nothing more important than the movement of the spread. Did you know that the majority of NFL games end with very similar margins of victory? The three most common are 3, 7, and 10 points. Those spreads become the primary key numbers when researching the NFL lines.
When an NFL spread moves from 3 points to 3.5 or 2.5 take notice. 17% of NFL games land on the 3 point margin. Taking a game at +/- 3 points isn’t a huge risk but taking the hook or the .5 is. Getting +3.5 points on an underdog might be excellent value. 10% of all games land on 7 points while 6% of all games land on 10 points.
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Overall Record: (183-49-1)
Last Week: (2-2)
Denver Broncos at Miami Dolphins (-1.5)
It’s very rare and somewhat odd that the home team is going to honor the opposing teams quarterback, but that is exactly what is happening on Sunday in Miami. The Dolphins will honor Tim Tebow and the Champion Florida Gators during half time while Tebow is in the locker room planning to dissect the Dolphins. The Dallas Cowboys, New England Patriots, Philadelphia Eagles, or Pittsburgh Steelers would never let something like this happen. Why is this not being rescheduled? Because people in Miami care more about the Florida Gators than their professional football team right now. It has been said that Head Coach Tony Sporano would be around as long as the Dolphins play hard for him, but it seems to be falling apart. The Dolphins are in a losing skid and 0-5 on the year and Brandon Marshall and Reggie Bush are both on the injury report. The Broncos on the other hand have a glimpse of new life as Tebow starts at QB. While Tim Tebow might not be the prototypical NFL quarterback he does one thing…find a way to win.
Key Stat: Denver is 13-1 against the spread coming off a bye week since 1992
Pick: Broncos + 1.5
Houston Texans at Tennessee Titans (-3)
Believe it or not, one of these two teams is going to win the AFC South. It was the Houston Texans who were penciled in to win the division but the Titans would win the AFC South if the season ended today. Many people might look at this spread and say “something doesn’t seem right?” Usually, a home team is given a three point adjustment so are the books telling us these two teams are even? Looking into it further you will find that the Texans have struggled with the Titans historically. The Texans are 5-13 all time in the series and even worse 2-7 in Tennessee. Houston has struggled to find an offensive rhythm since the hamstring injury of Andre Johnson and also gave up over 400 yards on defense without Mario Williams, their leading sack artist. The only thing holding back the Titans is they rank last in the league averaging 66.6 yards on the ground as Chris Johnson has started slowly after signing a $53 million extension.
Pick: Titans -3
Indianapolis Colts at New Orleans Saints (-13.5)
A Superbowl XLIV rematch, at least we know Peyton Manning won’t be throwing any interceptions to put a nail in the coffin. These two teams are nothing like they were as the Colts continue to slide and have yet to notch a win during the season. Curtis Painter will remain the starter for the Colts and has been somewhat efficient throwing five touchdowns and only one interception over the three games he started. One thing you have to give the Colts credit for is their heart. The Colts are playing to win and giving everything out their on the field, unlike some others in the AFC. It seems they don’t have the talent to compete and that talent is Peyton Manning. As much as I want to pick the Colts thinking they may make it competitive as they did against the Steelers on Sunday night my head keeps telling me it will be a blow out.
Pick: Saints -13.5