As Week 8 of the NFL season approaches it is highlighted by a potential AFC Championship showdown as the New England Patriots travel to the Pittsburgh Steelers. The Steelers are three-point underdogs which matches the first time the Steelers have been a three-point underdog at home in over 10 years. We also witness the first meeting of NFC East rivals, as the Dallas Cowboys meet up with Michael Vick and the Philadelphia Eagles. While to the NFL fan these games offer some serious eye candy there is also a match up for first place in the AFC West. Believe it or not the Kansas City Chiefs can take over sole possession of first place if they beat the San Diego Chargers Halloween night.
One aspect of NFL betting that frustrates the Las Vegas gamblers is the struggle of what games to parlay together. It happens to all of us. There are a total of 10 games on the slate and you pick seven out of 10.
70% is an amazing stat. Despite your success rate you always seem to put one of those losers on your ticket and end up going 2-1 or 1-2. Remember that consistency is key and while you may have put a loser on a ticket odds are there is another ticket that has a winner. If not, be proud of your 70%. Sports betting should be fun and not used as a mean to gain an income.
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Overall Record: (185-50-1)
Last Week: (2-1)
Detroit Lions at Denver Broncos (+3)
Tim Tebow is ready to make his first home start of the year against a Lions team that has dropped their last two games after starting 5-0. There could be trouble in Motown for the Lions as Matt Stafford is questionable for the contest but should make the start. The news is not so good for running back Javid Best who has been ruled out. He is still suffering from concussion symptoms.
During the last two games the Lions have had trouble stopping the run and have allowed horrid numbers when it comes to yards per carry. This doesn’t do much for the Broncos who are without the services of RB Willis McGahee who has been a strong addition for Denver. While Tim Tebow should spark a Broncos running game the Lions defense should give Tebow fits as they rank 9th against the pass.
Expect the Lions to get back to their winning ways as Stafford will have a productive day finding Calvin Johnson for multiple scores.
Pick: Lions -3
Cleveland Browns at San Francisco 49ers (-9.5)
If the season ended today the 49ers would be the second seed in the NFC playoffs and while everyone continues to buy into these 49ers I can’t seem to do the same.
There has been an offensive explosion in the NFL this season and the 49ers are missing the boat. Alex Smith and company are dead last in passing yards averaging only 171 yards per game. The strength of the 49ers still lies with the legs of Frank Gore who has the 49ers running game functioning on all cylinders.
The Browns hold the NFL’s No. 1 pass defense and will be able to key on the run and Frank Gore. While the Browns wont stop him they should continue to make this a close game.
On paper it is a different story. The Browns are 0-3-1 against the spread in their last four games due to an anemic offense that is only averaging 13.3 points per game and the 49ers are 4-0 against the spread averaging 27.5 points per game.
Despite strong trends that would lead most to pick the 49ers sometimes you have to use your gut feeling.
Pick: Browns +9.5
New England Patriots at Pittsburgh Steelers (+3)
A classic match up of an offensive juggernaut vs a defensive giant but wait…the Steelers aren’t too shabby in the passing department. The Steelers passing game ranks 9th in the NFL averaging 266 yards per game and Ben Roethlisberger is coming off a Tom Brady like three touchdown performance against the Arizona Cardinals.The Steelers are 9th in the league in total offensive yards and could make this a good old-fashioned NFL shootout.
Neither of these teams are as dominant as they have been in the earlier years and I believe that opens the door for some interesting teams in the playoffs, but despite those thoughts they are still two of the impressive teams in the NFL.
It’s hard to bet against a Tom Brady who can lead your team to victory in the last minutes but it is easy to bet against the Patriots pass defense. Ranked dead last in the NFL, allowing 322 yards in the air per game, Ben Roethlisberger knows that his strength will be going to the air and finding Mike Wallace while stretching the field.
Pick: Steelers +3