After a relatively mild September and October, fall and winter are poised to make a noticeable impact across the St. John’s metropolitan region, along with the rest of Newfoundland in the next week. With the jet stream setting up over eastern Newfoundland for the next week we are looking at a series of fall storms, some of which will be more powerful than extra tropical storms Maria and Ophelia when they hit Newfoundland.
Storm #1: The first storm to impact St. John’s and most of Newfoundland will start Tuesday night, and continue through Wednesday. A large area of low pressure will rapidly deepen as it moves across the Grand Banks, bottoming out at close to 975 mb or perhaps lower. Approximately 50 to 75 mm of rain will fall from St. John’s west to the Bonavista Peninsula. Winds will peak at 100 to 110 km/hr, perhaps even higher in the Bonavista region Wednesday morning. Models have been trending west, which is good if you don’t like snow. There is a decent chance the rain will mix and even turn completely to snow in Western Newfoundland, mainly in higher elevations such as Gros Morne. A wet 5 + cm of snow is possible.
Storm #2: Another low pressure system, moving up the jet stream, is forecasted to move just off shore of the St. John’s. This low does not seem to be as strong as storm #1, however it has more of a chance to bring snow to St. Johns, the Avalon , and central Newfoundland. It’s hard to tell this far out, but 5 to 10 cm of wet snow could fall in central, with a slushy few for St. John’s. This will be a wakeup call for putting snow tires on vehicles… I would advise you to start booking appointments now.
Storm #3/ Halloween Storm: The next major storm to hit St. John’s and the rest of the Island is expected to make landfall sometime between Sunday and Monday morning ( a nice Halloween event!). It will be most similar with storm #1 in which it will have strong winds, possibly gusting to wind warning criteria of 100 km/hr according to the GFS weather forecast model. Right now it looks as if eastern Newfoundland will be mostly rain, however there could be the first significant snowfall of the winter season across western Newfoundland with this system.
There is pretty good agreement on Storm #1, however much less confidence on storms #2 and #3. It’s still way too early to say for sure what will happen, but needless to say we are now in a active winter pattern and the forecast will need to be monitored closely by everyone.
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