I recently listened to a few panels of ‘The Global China Summit.’ Like all information, most who were there or watched it, whether on C-span or some other platform, gained a possible appreciation of why the world is focused on China.
In remarks by Marcus Brauchli, he noted this event as being: ‘a dialogue on China’s economic future; its ties to the U.S.; and its role as a global investor.’ Translation, China is now considered one of the world’s most powerful economic interests.
Continuing, the first panel speaker was David Miliband. He articulated that ‘historians may well define the last decade, not by a ‘war on terror,’ but rather, by the phrase: ‘made in China.’’
In this sense, further comments described China as having 150 million people, living on less than $1 per day; and having a per capita GDP of 1/10th U.S. level. However, in what’s upcoming, per China’s new 5 year plan, there’s an anticipation of 400 million people moving into cities, from the rural parts of the country; over 50K miles of new highway; 80K kilometers of high speed rail; 30K new skyscrapers; millions for higher education & billions for clean tech.
Moving to the next speaker, of this first panel, was Daniel Rosen. He spoke to a consensus about China, ‘as the most important contributor to global growth. He cited three themes: A) China as a consumer of stuff might eclipse the U.S. within a decade; B) China, Inc, as a general descriptive term, is the most exciting story in global productions; and, C) China’s Outbound – Direct Investment, in the U.S. alone annually, is now over 300 deals ranging from $5 to $7 billion.’
In essence, with a reference to the last point, Chinese firms are no longer just shipping to the U.S. across the pacific; rather, they are increasingly willing to become stakeholders in our communities. This creates opportunities & tensions.
The final speaker, in this opening segment, was Elizabeth Economy. She offered five trends, over the 30 years, helping economic growth; but, whose results, may now provoke a rethink of how China will proceed in the future.
‘1) Demographics: China benefitted from more people entering the work force & its high savings rate. Currently though, for 2030 projections, those in the 20s – age group are expected to drop by 35%; whereas, the 55 to 60 age group will increase by 60% & those over 65 will increase by 100%.
2) The government relieved state owned enterprises of their economic burden of social welfare, i.e. housing, education, & general welfare of workers. Consequently, the government forgot to replace it w/ anything else; thus, an imbalance resulted.
3) Poor implementation of environmental regulations & laws, i.e. no real oversight. Hence, the environment is beginning to bite back; the estimate being a cost to the GDP of China, roughly 10%.
4) The limited nature of political reform to date in China has created a lack of transparency, official accountability, & rules of law. Clearly, its something that may conflict with the desire of China to move up the value chain: becoming an innovation economy.
5) Rise of the Internet: Internally to China, this is one of the most exciting changes; a hotbed of economic activity, having 800 million products for sale, 48K products sold per minute, & 370 million registered users. Not to mention, the build-up of a virtual political system.’
The actual panel for this summary can be found at: http://www.c-span.org/Events/Chinas-Economic-Power-Examined/10737424391-1/. My website is located at: http://kmriei.yolasite.com/.