Heavy rain is an understatement. We just had Irene drop a widespread swatch of 10 inch rainfall up the east coast, with flooding in New Jersey that still has not subsided. But what come computer models are projecting for parts of the Gulf Coast region will be much worse.
Tropical Storm Lee has not been formally named yet, but that is just academic. Winds are 35 mph and will organize a little better in the north central Gulf of Mexico during the day. But wind is not the concern. The rain is. Check out the first map in our slide show on the left. That is the 5-day rainfall outlook from NOAA’s Hydrometeorological Prediction Center. It shows over 24 inches of rainfall for southern Louisiana, including New Orleans. This is due to a storm that is expected to slowly move across the region, resulting in what will bring tremendous flooding.
It is important to note that computer models yesterday had this same storm reaching southern Texas over the weekend. So long range projections are sketchy. That is important for the soggy eastern US, because any increase in forward speed may allow this rain to move farther north, but also help protect that same area from Katia in the Atlantic It is anyone’s guess with little support, so we will continue to cautiously track it.
Watches and Warnings:
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* PASCAGOULA MISSISSIPPI WESTWARD TO SABINE PASS TEXAS…INCLUDING
THE CITY OF NEW ORLEANS…LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN…AND LAKE MAUREPAS
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA…IN THIS CASE WITHIN
Latest NHC UPDATE on KATIA
ABOUT 240 MI…385 KM SW OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
ABOUT 270 MI…435 KM SSE OF PORT ARTHUR TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…35 MPH…55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 2 MPH…4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1006 MB…29.71 INCHES
Tropical Storm Katia
This was downgraded on Thursday due to wind sheer, but should regain intensity over the weekend. It is still projected to reach Category 3 intensity next week, but despite a track a little farther west, it is nearly impossible to call how it behaves with all of the traffic in the Atlantic. See the latest in the slide show.
Tropical Storm Maria?
Yes, there is another area off of the East Coast that has a 60% potential for being named over the weekend. This will not directly impact the East Coast, but could influence the others storms behavior.
Tropical Story Links:
• Tropical Storm Climatology: Origin points mapped out every 10 days of the season
• 2011 Hurricane season forecast and review of 2010
• 2011 Hurricane season video report: Joe Bastardi forecast for more US landfalls
2010 Season Recap:
• Records and individual storm links
• Video of 2010 Season from NOAA
NOTE: 2009 was among the least active in the last two decades (video)
Hurricane Awareness Week Links:
• Hurricane Awareness Week: History of storms 1900-1979
• Hurricane Awareness Week: History of Atlantic storms 1980-2005
• Hurricane Awareness Week: Storm surge highlights oil danger on Louisiana coast
• Hurricane Awareness Week: Inland Flooding
NEW:Satellite Loop Movie: 72 hours of Total Precipitable Water and TRMM