A strong upper level trough is currently digging into the Great Lakes. This system will produce widespread clouds and lake effect/enhanced showers and possibly a thunderstorm in the Buffalo area today. It will be breezy and chilly with highs today near 60 degrees.
As the trough settles across the eastern lakes tonight, additional energy will dive southeastward through the Great Lakes. This will help to amplify the trough and develop a rather strong surface low over the Mid Atlantic states tonight and Saturday.
Lake effect/enhanced showers and thunderstorms will transition to a steadier, more wide spread rain tonight and Saturday as the system over the Mid Atlantic states deepens. Cold air pouring southeastward across Lake Erie will help to add some lake enhancement to the rainfall across the western southern tier.
Temperatures tonight and Saturday, both at the surface and aloft, may become just cold enough to allow for a little wet snow or sleet to mix in with the rain at times, especially across the higher terrain south of Buffalo. Lows tonight are forecast to drop to the upper 30’s across the higher terrain to the mid 40’s in Buffalo and along the lake shore with highs on Saturday in the mid to upper 40’s.
It will become quite windy tonight and Saturday as well with gusts in excess of 40 mph possible.
The storm over the Mid Atlantic will be slow to move out with clouds and showers expected to last into Sunday night. Drier weather and improving conditions are expected by early next week.
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